2008年10月25日星期六

石油將會怎樣耗盡




李察按:
時間己經差不多三個月過去了。三個月之前,我們曾經預言某種重大的衰退。
但目前,經濟環境奇怪地變異。你知道是甚麼地方變了嗎? 

以下,是某君的想法。謝謝你的費心。


Your article"石油將會怎樣耗盡" is a prediction of human life in the next 500 years with the oil crisis the dominant issue for human to tackle. There are two options apparently given to man. The first one is at e point, man should enjoy a larger degree of freedom of speech which certain new idea would be formed to replace the old thinking network with oil as its centre. The another one is at f point, which man can simply hide themselves in a "safe" place, store enough food and other materials for around 50 years, and then wait all man to be died and find a new resource to continue the human civilization.

If i were free to choose, i shall prefer the e point to f point. I am a man loving the earth and mankind. Though i must say that i hate the bad character of man, and the vice made by these man which is increasing nowdays, i am still optimistic about man future. Man, a species has lived in the everywhere on the earth for past thousands of years, during which many great disaster have occurred, the last ice age, the atomic bomb development, can still live for a next thousands of years, as long as they can find a practical solution for all their problems on earth. I can see that when they can find that practical solution, they shall be, sooner or later, at point e. The only question for man is, if there is no change in present situation, the resources, water, food, are exhaustibility utilized, the restriction on free speech is everywhere, and people are still lazy and fool as they were in this century, we can die before that point is reached. In History, such a change can only be brought by a philosopher, who dare to think and can think. But at present, no philosopher, like you, would like to stand up to lead the public, which they did in enlightenment age and renaissance. It is a sad matter indeed and i think it is not necessary to dwell on at that point which we have already discussed in depth. Only by god's mercy can a miracle occur that we would make a great leap to that point e soon, i think

I think to myself that point f is a point where most evil guys has ever dreamed when they always want to have a complete control of earth. However, i consider it foolish for man to dream and ever work to reach that point. Where is the safe place for that kind of people? Surely it is not low-lying lands which can be flooded, it is not desert which has no water, it is not in mountainous regions as avalanche and earthquake are frequently occurred, it is not underground and undersea as there is no oxygen. There are many places contaminated by nuclear, water, air pollutants Even if you can find one, man, at that moment, shall compete with you for that safe place. How about the food and resource for human life for a long time, say 50 years, then? Surely the total product of food and resource produce in a year cannot afford a group of person, or even a person for 50 years. You have to steal your neighbours’ food frequently to maintain the standard of living. They shall input a large effort in protecting these valuable goods, which would be a hard job for them. Even if these fool and wicked man can fulfill these 2 requirements, I still think they have no chance to survive, and even rebuild human civilization. If all man were dead, there will never be anything left to them, including the new resource that they have once thought of. I firmly believe the mighty God would punish these people at the end, just like He punished those Jewish escaped to Egypt after Israel was occupied.


I believe that, you and all who care the earth shall naturally choose point e instead of point f. I have a strong conviction that if more and more people do the same, the time to reach point e would be sooner, just like when more and more Jewish believe in God, the time to get into the Promised Land would be earlier.


附錄
舊文新看

石油將會怎樣耗盡?


石油將會怎樣耗盡? *李察
(問到底 No.7090 2008 0712 Saturday)


附圖中的數字,代表年份。從公元零年到公元四
千年之間,只有極少部份的時間,人類是使用石油的。
十八世紀的人們開始注意到,地殼底層的一種液體,
可供燃燒。


從此一時間開始,直到公元二千零五年,石油的
使用量,達到了最高峰。但人們同時開始驚覺,石油
的蘊藏量,是有限的,可以算出一個石油耗盡的時間。


但是,石油不會是逐漸消耗的。就好比一個人那
樣,人體裡,有百份之七十是水份。但人不是要耗盡
那百份之七十的水才死的。只要缺水數日,生命就不
能維持。


美國學者Ken Deffeyes 認為,只要油價達到了
每桶三百美元,世界經濟就會崩潰。他用總的全球產
油總值和全球總產值(World Domestic Product)比
較,他認為,如果油價達到總產值的百份之十五的時
候,世界經濟就不可能維持下去。(油價在每桶一百
三十美元的時候,是百份之六點五。)


如果按他的計算,當全球耗油量來到圖中 B 點的
時候,由於經濟崩潰,生產停頓,圖中的曲線會變成
直線,石油的使用量會一直下降,到達下面的C 點。
然後才會慢慢回復一點,到了D 點的時候,地球上
最後的一滴油,大約會送到博物館去保存。因為,地
球上再沒有石油了。


如果他的計算準確,這就是非常可怕,而且很快
就會發生的事情。


如果他的計算不準確,也是相當可怕的。假設經
濟在油價三百美元的時候,並未崩潰、、、這是有可
能的。因為,人的行為,是會調節的。如果油價太高,
地球經濟也會迅速變化。代替品會紛紛出現,戰爭也
會持續發生。戰爭可能使石油的使用權,由一些國家
轉到另一些國家手上。


但是,無論如何,石油總是有耗盡的一天的。如
果地球經濟並未在三百美元的崩潰點崩潰,到油價上
脹到四百美元、六百美元、一千美元的時候,就算實
際的經濟不崩潰,心理上也會崩潰了。


只除非一種情況發生:如果人類真的是這樣聰明,
能夠找到一種代用的物料,能夠全面取代石油,那樣,
人類的文明便有機會持續下去。


這就是圖中用紅色繪畫的 E 曲線。如果新物料在
大崩潰之前已經全面取代石油,那將是人類的喜訊,
雖然,死而不僵也不算甚麼喜訊了。


又如果,新的燃燒物料始終未能出現,一直到了
石油真的用盡,人類回復十七世紀之前的生活,仍未
能出現,會有好處嗎?那時,地球人口大量減少,比
一切戰爭和天災所能刪除的人口,更多。極少數的地
球人重新享受新鮮的水、清潔的空氣和陽光,到了若
干時日,可能到了公元二千五百年左右,新物料才重
新出現。這一條曲線,就是圖中的 F 曲線。那將會
是人類文明的真正重生。


從歷史看,戰爭和天災都不能減少人口。二次大
戰中,中國人口不過損失兩千萬。這數字,一下子便
被嬰兒潮淹沒了。或者我們會想像不到,能源危機的
威力,竟比戰爭和天災更大。那才是真正有實力的、
有用處的危機。


有讀者來信問,我們可以怎麼辦?


答案要看:我們希望死而不僵的「 E 」 還是
全新的「 F 」 出現。


如果我們投「 E  」一票,則是很簡單的。我
們會盡量開放知識,放任不同類型的知識出現。我們
會以愛心取代私心,這樣,新的物料,將會在一種快
樂的、前所未有的、自由的、新鮮的思想網絡中產生。


  如果我們都想享受真正的新鮮空氣與陽光,我們
決定了投「 F 」一票,也是很簡單的。只要甚麼都
不用做就是。唯一需要做的,是找一個隱秘的地方,
儲存足夠五十年使用的糧食,躲起來。到所有人都死
光了,就可以出來,慢慢的研究新的燃燒物料。

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