Your article"石油將會怎樣耗盡" is a prediction of human life in the next 500 years with the oil crisis the dominant issue for human to tackle. There are two options apparently given to man. The first one is at e point, man should enjoy a larger degree of freedom of speech which certain new idea would be formed to replace the old thinking network with oil as its centre. The another one is at f point, which man can simply hide themselves in a "safe" place, store enough food and other materials for around 50 years, and then wait all man to be died and find a new resource to continue the human civilization.
If i were free to choose, i shall prefer the e point to f point. I am a man loving the earth and mankind. Though i must say that i hate the bad character of man, and the vice made by these man which is increasing nowdays, i am still optimistic about man future. Man, a species has lived in the everywhere on the earth for past thousands of years, during which many great disaster have occurred, the last ice age, the atomic bomb development, can still live for a next thousands of years, as long as they can find a practical solution for all their problems on earth. I can see that when they can find that practical solution, they shall be, sooner or later, at point e. The only question for man is, if there is no change in present situation, the resources, water, food, are exhaustibility utilized, the restriction on free speech is everywhere, and people are still lazy and fool as they were in this century, we can die before that point is reached. In History, such a change can only be brought by a philosopher, who dare to think and can think. But at present, no philosopher, like you, would like to stand up to lead the public, which they did in enlightenment age and renaissance. It is a sad matter indeed and i think it is not necessary to dwell on at that point which we have already discussed in depth. Only by god's mercy can a miracle occur that we would make a great leap to that point e soon, i think
I think to myself that point f is a point where most evil guys has ever dreamed when they always want to have a complete control of earth. However, i consider it foolish for man to dream and ever work to reach that point. Where is the safe place for that kind of people? Surely it is not low-lying lands which can be flooded, it is not desert which has no water, it is not in mountainous regions as avalanche and earthquake are frequently occurred, it is not underground and undersea as there is no oxygen. There are many places contaminated by nuclear, water, air pollutants Even if you can find one, man, at that moment, shall compete with you for that safe place. How about the food and resource for human life for a long time, say 50 years, then? Surely the total product of food and resource produce in a year cannot afford a group of person, or even a person for 50 years. You have to steal your neighbours’ food frequently to maintain the standard of living. They shall input a large effort in protecting these valuable goods, which would be a hard job for them. Even if these fool and wicked man can fulfill these 2 requirements, I still think they have no chance to survive, and even rebuild human civilization. If all man were dead, there will never be anything left to them, including the new resource that they have once thought of. I firmly believe the mighty God would punish these people at the end, just like He punished those Jewish escaped to Egypt after Israel was occupied.
I believe that, you and all who care the earth shall naturally choose point e instead of point f. I have a strong conviction that if more and more people do the same, the time to reach point e would be sooner, just like when more and more Jewish believe in God, the time to get into the Promised Land would be earlier.
(問到底 No.7090 2008 0712 Saturday)
美國學者Ken Deffeyes 認為，只要油價達到了
油總值和全球總產值(World Domestic Product)比
如果按他的計算，當全球耗油量來到圖中 B 點的
這就是圖中用紅色繪畫的 E 曲線。如果新物料在
新出現。這一條曲線，就是圖中的 F 曲線。那將會
答案要看：我們希望死而不僵的「 E 」 還是
全新的「 F 」 出現。
如果我們投「 E 」一票，則是很簡單的。我
決定了投「 F 」一票，也是很簡單的。只要甚麼都